# Forecasting with Time Series Essay

QRB/501 Quantitative Reasoning for Business

February 7, 2012

Forecasting with Time Series For most companies, forecasting is very important. Their future can be determined with forecasting and this also helps pin point the problems of the past. Forecasting can be done in many methods, depending on what exactly is being forecasted. A forecasting tool used to determine demand for various commodities or goods in a given marketplace over the course of a typical year (or a shorter time period). Such an index is based on data from previous years that highlights seasonal differences in consumption. In some industries, the seasonality index experiences huge swings. (Business Dictionary, 2012) This forecasting

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Forecast

The numbers forecasted suggest that the demand will decrease within five years. One may see this decrease as normal when averaging four years of inventory demand. When calculating lower- demand years with higher demand years one can anticipate the demands to be lower than a higher demand years. This can be an accurate forecast in a fluctuating market. When demands are increasing annually this leaves one to ponder whether or not a decrease in demand is accurate for the five year forecast. This forecast will rely on more substantive information.

Annual increase in inventory using the slope-intercept formula

There are different slope intercept formulas. A basic slope intercept formula is y=mx+b. This is a mathematical formula depicting y coordinate being equal to the slop times the x coordinate plus the y-intercept. Slope-intercept formula can be used to establish the yearly increase in inventory, supply monthly indices with data that was gathered, categorize slow and busy months